Firethon discusses wildfire modeling

“Past behavior is no longer enough to predict future behavior.” This statement by Arnaldo Carneiro, coordinator of the Amazon Regional Observatory (ARO/ACTO), captured one of the central themes of the Firethon, held on May 20 by the ARO with support from the CorAmazonia project of the German Agency for International Cooperation (GIZ).

The event brought together more than 30 experts from research institutes, universities, international organizations, and non-governmental organizations to discuss innovations in predictive wildfire modeling in the Amazon. The goal of the Firethon is to build a shared understanding of the state of the art in wildfire forecasting, data interoperability, and integrated fire management across the region.

According to Carneiro, wildfires are no longer isolated events and have become a reflection of structural transformations taking place in the Amazon. “The Amazon is highly exposed to increasingly frequent and intense fires, while response capacity remains far below what is needed,” he said.

For the ARO coordinator, the main challenge is to shift from a predominantly reactive approach to a preventive one. “We need to develop the capacity to anticipate when high-risk wildfire scenarios will emerge in the Amazon,” Carneiro stated.

Opening the event, Bivyane Rojas, Chief of Staff of ACTO, highlighted the importance of regional and multisectoral coordination to address the growing threat of wildfires. “ACTO brings together networks of authorities from the eight Amazonian countries working on both integrated fire management and public health and safety. Exercises like this are important because they help connect these agendas and strengthen a multisectoral approach,” she said.

The Firethon discussions covered topics such as climate projections, fire ecology, remote sensing, El Niño impacts, forest degradation, hydric stress, and human-induced ignition.

Information for decision-making

Firethon discussions addressed topics such as climate projections, fire ecology, remote sensing, El Niño impacts, forest degradation, hydric stress, and human-induced ignition. Photo: Paula Drummond

Researcher Alexandra Syphard, from the Global Wildfire Collective, emphasized that predictive modeling must begin with real-world challenges. “There are many models around the world, but you have to start with the question, not the model,” Syphard said.

Ana Carolina Pessôa, from the Amazon Environmental Research Institute (IPAM), stressed that no single model can fully explain the complexity of fire dynamics in the Amazon. “Fire governance requires complementarity among models,” she said. According to the researcher, significant gaps remain, particularly regarding interoperability among systems, the incorporation of socioeconomic dimensions, and post-fire restoration strategies.

During the event, Renata Libonati, from the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), presented the reliability of climate projections across different time horizons and explained how this information can support prevention strategies by identifying periods of elevated wildfire risk. She also highlighted that seasonal forecasts already indicate a high probability of a new El Niño event developing in the coming months, a condition that could intensify wildfire risk across different regions of the Amazon.

For Douglas Morton, of NASA, predictive modeling still faces scientific challenges related to interactions among the atmosphere, vegetation, and oceans. “The Amazon is influenced by both the Atlantic and the Pacific,” he noted. Morton also emphasized that models need to advance not only in predicting ignitions but also in forecasting fire spread.

One of the outcomes of the meeting was the decision that the ARO will develop a Toolbox bringing together predictive models evaluated by experts. The initiative aims to provide Amazonian countries with a set of scientific tools to support wildfire prevention and strengthen evidence-based decision-making.

The Firethon brought together representatives from INPE, IPAM, NASA, FAO, CENSIPAM, Yale University, Columbia University, the Woodwell Climate Research Center, Fundación Amigos de la Naturaleza, the Global Wildfire Collective, UNAM, UFRJ, UnB, the CIMA Foundation, and GIZ.

The Firethon precedes the event “Workshop on Data and Information for the Implementation of Integrated Fire Management in the Amazon Region – FIRE DATA,” taking place on May 21 and 22. The meeting aims to build a shared vision on data, platforms, and decision-making processes related to integrated fire management, while identifying gaps, strengthening technical capacities, and generating strategic recommendations for Amazon regional integration.

Cover image caption: A NASA satellite image shows wildfire hotspots in the Amazon and Bolivia in the same scene (August 2011), highlighting the regional extent of fire activity and the influence of climate and land-use conditions on wildfire spread.