Without governance, infrastructure could accelerate deforestation in the Amazon

Last Thursday (23), the lecture “Amazon 2050: deforestation scenarios, governance and climate impacts” was presented by Britaldo Soares-Filho, from the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG, in Portuguese), a specialist in land-use dynamics. With around 80 participants, both online and in person at ACTO, the event organized by the Amazon Regional Observatory (ARO) underscored the need to understand and monitor the drivers of deforestation, identified as one of the factors that could push the Amazon toward a tipping point.

In addition, studies published in scientific journals show that deforestation reduces rainfall and agricultural revenues in the Brazilian Amazon, reinforcing the role of the forest in climate regulation and in sustaining agribusiness.

Analyses by Soares-Filho’s group, based on spatial modeling of land-use scenarios, indicate that agricultural expansion remains one of the main pressure drivers. Models such as OTIMIZAGRO project growth of more than 50 percent in the production of commodities such as soy and corn in Brazil, driven mainly by the expansion into new areas rather than productivity gains.

In terms of logistics, he highlighted the case of Mato Grosso, in central Brazil, one of the country’s main soybean-producing regions, where transport costs remain among the highest. This helps explain the pressure for investment in transport infrastructure. “There is currently a demand to expand transport infrastructure, especially to move agricultural commodities,” he said.

The lecture also emphasized that large infrastructure projects, including South American integration routes and new logistics corridors, can trigger significant indirect effects. “More infrastructure reduces transport costs, increases land prices and, consequently, stimulates deforestation,” he explained. Initiatives such as the megaport of Chancay in Peru and Brazil’s National Logistics and Transport Plan illustrate this movement to connect the Atlantic and Pacific, expanding economic opportunities but also environmental risks.

SimAmazôniaInfra

The SimAmazôniaInfra information system, under development by UFMG’s Territorial Intelligence Center, is designed as a tool to anticipate the impacts of major transport infrastructure in the Amazon. It simulates different scenarios linked to the South American Integration Routes to estimate costs, benefits and risks before projects are implemented.

The goal is to understand how these infrastructures may affect the economy, deforestation, biodiversity and protected areas, particularly in a region expected to undergo significant changes in the coming decades. The scenarios generated by SimAmazôniaInfra will be made available within the ARO platform, allowing countries to access and provide input on the results.

Finally, Soares-Filho emphasized the role of these tools in supporting public policy. With open databases, the use of artificial intelligence, including mapping illegal roads, and increasing processing capacity, the models aim to guide territorial planning and prioritize conservation actions. “The goal is to improve understanding of the problems in order to support solutions,” he concluded, arguing that decisions on infrastructure and land use should integrate both economic and environmental costs and benefits.

Check the presentation slides here (only in Portuguese).

Image Credits: An unpaved portion of the Tranzamazonian Highway, taken between Rurópolis and Uruará (Brazil). Photo by Keith Irwin